Analyze Nifty 50's historical CAGR over different time periods. Understand long-term equity returns, volatility patterns, and what returns to expect from index investing.
What returns can you expect from Nifty 50? Historical data shows that patience is rewarded, but the journey can be volatile.
Understanding Nifty 50's historical CAGR helps set realistic return expectations for equity investments.
Nifty 50 Historical Returns
Long-Term CAGR (Price Return)
| Period |
CAGR |
Total Return |
| 30 years (1994-2024) |
~12.5% |
32x |
| 25 years (1999-2024) |
~12.2% |
18x |
| 20 years (2004-2024) |
~12.8% |
11x |
| 15 years (2009-2024) |
~13.5% |
7x |
| 10 years (2014-2024) |
~12.0% |
3.1x |
Long-term Nifty 50 CAGR: ~12-13% (price return).
Calculate your returns: Use our CAGR Calculator.
Including Dividends (Total Return Index)
| Period |
Price CAGR |
Total Return CAGR |
Dividend Contribution |
| 20 years |
12.8% |
14.5% |
~1.7% |
| 15 years |
13.5% |
15.2% |
~1.7% |
| 10 years |
12.0% |
13.6% |
~1.6% |
Total Return CAGR (including dividends): ~14-15%
Year-by-Year Returns
Recent Annual Returns
| Year |
Nifty 50 Return |
Market Condition |
| 2024 (YTD) |
~12% |
Bull |
| 2023 |
+20.0% |
Bull |
| 2022 |
+4.3% |
Sideways |
| 2021 |
+24.1% |
Bull |
| 2020 |
+14.9% |
Recovery |
| 2019 |
+12.0% |
Moderate |
| 2018 |
+3.2% |
Flat |
| 2017 |
+28.6% |
Bull |
| 2016 |
+3.0% |
Flat |
| 2015 |
-4.1% |
Bear |
Historic Extremes
| Category |
Year |
Return |
| Best year |
2009 |
+76% |
| 2nd best |
2014 |
+31% |
| 3rd best |
2017 |
+29% |
| Worst year |
2008 |
-52% |
| 2nd worst |
2011 |
-25% |
| 3rd worst |
2015 |
-4% |
Rolling Returns Analysis
10-Year Rolling CAGR
| Starting Year |
Ending Year |
CAGR |
| 2004 |
2014 |
12.1% |
| 2005 |
2015 |
7.8% |
| 2006 |
2016 |
5.2% |
| 2007 |
2017 |
6.2% |
| 2008 |
2018 |
9.8% |
| 2009 |
2019 |
10.8% |
| 2010 |
2020 |
8.2% |
| 2011 |
2021 |
14.1% |
| 2012 |
2022 |
12.5% |
| 2013 |
2023 |
13.2% |
10-year CAGR range: 5% to 14% depending on start date.
15-Year Rolling CAGR
| Starting Year |
Ending Year |
CAGR |
| 2004 |
2019 |
10.8% |
| 2005 |
2020 |
9.2% |
| 2006 |
2021 |
10.5% |
| 2007 |
2022 |
8.8% |
| 2008 |
2023 |
11.2% |
| 2009 |
2024 |
13.5% |
15-year CAGR range: 8% to 14% - more consistent.
Key Insight: Time Reduces Variance
| Investment Period |
CAGR Range |
Probability of Loss |
| 1 year |
-52% to +76% |
~30% |
| 5 years |
-2% to +35% |
~15% |
| 10 years |
+5% to +14% |
~5% |
| 15 years |
+8% to +14% |
~0% |
Longer holding = More predictable returns.
What Affects Nifty 50 CAGR
Starting Valuations Matter
| Entry PE |
Subsequent 10-Year CAGR |
| < 15 (cheap) |
15-18% |
| 15-18 (fair) |
12-15% |
| 18-22 (expensive) |
8-12% |
| > 22 (very expensive) |
5-10% |
Buy when PE is low = Higher CAGR.
Economic Cycles
| Phase |
Typical Nifty Return |
Duration |
| Bull market |
+20-30%/year |
2-4 years |
| Bear market |
-15-30%/year |
1-2 years |
| Consolidation |
0-10%/year |
1-3 years |
Full cycle averages out to ~12% CAGR.
SIP Returns in Nifty 50
Historical SIP Performance
₹10,000/month SIP in Nifty 50 Index Fund:
| Period |
Total Invested |
Current Value |
XIRR |
| 5 years |
₹6 L |
₹8.2 L |
13.1% |
| 10 years |
₹12 L |
₹24 L |
14.2% |
| 15 years |
₹18 L |
₹52 L |
13.8% |
| 20 years |
₹24 L |
₹1.1 Cr |
13.5% |
Use SIP Calculator to model your SIP.
SIP vs Lumpsum
| Scenario |
Lumpsum Return |
SIP XIRR |
| Consistent bull market |
Higher |
Lower |
| Volatile market |
Moderate |
Similar |
| Crash then recovery |
Lower |
Higher |
| Long-term average |
12-13% CAGR |
13-14% XIRR |
SIP performs well in volatile markets due to rupee cost averaging.
Comparison with Other Indices
Indian Indices
| Index |
10-Year CAGR |
20-Year CAGR |
Risk |
| Nifty 50 |
12% |
12.8% |
Moderate |
| Nifty Next 50 |
14% |
15% |
Higher |
| Nifty Midcap 100 |
16% |
17% |
High |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 |
12% |
14% |
Very High |
| Sensex |
12% |
12.5% |
Moderate |
Global Comparison
| Index |
20-Year CAGR (USD) |
| S&P 500 |
9.5% |
| Nifty 50 (INR) |
12.8% |
| Nifty 50 (USD) |
8-9% |
| MSCI Emerging Markets |
6.5% |
Nifty 50 in INR outperforms due to rupee depreciation. In USD terms, returns are comparable to S&P 500.
Setting Return Expectations
Conservative Estimate
| Period |
Expected CAGR |
| Next 10 years |
10-11% |
| Next 15 years |
11-12% |
| Next 20 years |
11-12% |
Why conservative: Current PE higher, economy maturing.
Optimistic Estimate
| Period |
Expected CAGR |
| Next 10 years |
12-14% |
| Next 15 years |
12-14% |
| Next 20 years |
12-13% |
Why optimistic: India's growth potential, demographics.
Realistic Planning Assumption
| For Planning |
Use |
| SIP calculations |
10-12% CAGR |
| Retirement planning |
10% CAGR |
| Short-term goals |
8-10% CAGR |
Better to be pleasantly surprised than disappointed.
Practical Investment Implications
For Lumpsum Investors
| Current Market |
Strategy |
| PE < 18 |
Invest lumpsum |
| PE 18-22 |
Invest 50% lumpsum, 50% over 6 months |
| PE > 22 |
Invest via STP over 12 months |
For SIP Investors
| Strategy |
Benefit |
| Consistent monthly SIP |
Rupee cost averaging |
| Top-up during crashes |
Buy more at lower prices |
| Continue in bear markets |
Accumulate more units |
Never stop SIP due to market conditions.
Volatility Is the Price of Returns
What to Expect
| Period |
Expected Drawdown |
| Every year |
5-10% correction |
| Every 2-3 years |
15-20% correction |
| Every 5-10 years |
30-50% crash |
Recovery Periods
| Crash Depth |
Typical Recovery Time |
| -10% |
2-4 months |
| -20% |
6-12 months |
| -30% |
12-24 months |
| -50% |
24-48 months |
Markets always recover given enough time.
Investment Strategies Based on CAGR Data
Strategy 1: Long-Term Index Investing
| Approach |
Implementation |
| Vehicle |
Nifty 50 Index Fund/ETF |
| Horizon |
10+ years |
| Expected CAGR |
10-12% |
| Effort |
Minimal |
Strategy 2: SIP + Crash Investing
| Approach |
Implementation |
| Regular SIP |
Monthly systematic investment |
| Crash bonus |
Add lumpsum when market drops 20%+ |
| Expected boost |
+1-2% CAGR improvement |
Strategy 3: Multi-Index Approach
| Index |
Allocation |
Expected Contribution |
| Nifty 50 |
50% |
12% × 50% = 6% |
| Nifty Next 50 |
30% |
14% × 30% = 4.2% |
| International |
20% |
10% × 20% = 2% |
| Blended |
|
~12.2% |
Conclusion
| Period |
Nifty 50 CAGR |
What It Means |
| Historical 20-year |
12-13% |
Proven track record |
| SIP historical |
13-14% XIRR |
Averaging helps |
| Expected future |
10-12% |
Reasonable assumption |
| Planning assumption |
10% |
Conservative and safe |
Key takeaways:
- Nifty 50 has delivered ~12-13% CAGR over 20+ years
- Total returns (with dividends) are 1.5-2% higher
- SIP returns (XIRR) are typically higher due to averaging
- Longer horizons reduce return variance
- Entry valuations significantly impact returns
- Use 10-12% for planning; be conservative
Nifty 50's historical performance makes a strong case for long-term index investing. The key is staying invested through volatility.
Calculate your potential returns: Use our CAGR Calculator, SIP Calculator, and Lumpsum Calculator to model different scenarios.
